Here's a quick look back at the December Dane County real estate market, for both single family homes and condos. Let's jump right into it...

Dane County Single Family Home Update - Dec 2018

New Dane County single family home listings were the lowest ever for the month of December. A total of 211 new listings entered the market, a decrease of 12% from the year before. 

A low influx of new listings is keeping the inventory of active listings low, too. As of January 11th, only 1.5 months of supply were available for sale on the open market. 

Last month, a total of 265 accepted offers were recorded in the MLS - a decrease of 17% from the 321 accepted offers recorded in December of 2017. 

This historical view of accepted offers

The Dane County real estate market had cooled noticeably for 3 straight months but rebounded nicely in November with a 7% increase in single family home accepted offers. According to our MLS data below, accepted offers increased from 326 in November of 2017 to 349 in November of 2018. Last month's increase followed 3 straight months of year-over-year declines, where offers had decreased by 10%, 16%, and 8% in August, September, and October, respectively. 

In the City of Madison, November accepted offers increased by 14% after decreasing by 15%, 27% and 11% in the three previous months. There's no doubt the slow-down earlier this fall was due in part by the heavy rains and flooding that hit the city of Madison very hard. 

What will the market

Last year we predicted 2018 would be a clear seller's market in Madison and Dane County. This year we're predicting 2019 to be a more balanced market, characterized by rising inventory and moderate price growth. You can get all of the details by viewing our 10 predictions for the 2019 market below. 

Our 2019 Madison Real Estate Predictions

#1: Foreclosures will rise. 

Foreclosures have been quietly rising in 2018, and we expect more of the same in 2019. This means more distressed properties will become available for sale in the coming year, but not enough to appreciably impact inventory in the Madison area.

#2: New home and condo construction will plateau. 

Madison area housing starts have been flat in 2018, and this trend will continue

We've been asked this question a lot lately.

The flooding we experienced in August and September has negatively impacted single family home sales this fall, but overall sales activity remains strong for this time of year. Inventory remains low, and we expect it to stay low for the foreseeable future. As Dane County's population continues to grow, new homes and condos aren't being built fast enough to keep pace with demand, and prices continue to rise. 

Mortgage rates have risen slightly this year and are expected to rise more in 2019. For this reason we expect prices to increase at a more subdued pace in the coming year. Stay tuned for our upcoming predictions for the 2019 real estate market, which we'll be releasing soon. In the meantime, here's a

Each year the Madison real estate market slows down in September due to the Labor Day holiday and the back-to-school rush. We see this slow-down in both the single family home and condo markets. As an example, see the graph below which shows the number of accepted offers in the Madison condo market for each month in 2017. Notice how market activity dipped significantly in September and then bounced higher in October. This is a pretty typical pattern for our market. 

As expected, this pattern is repeating itself in 2018. The first half of September was a slow time for real estate, but now we're seeing market activity pick up again as we approach the month of October. 

October = Opportunity for Sellers

If you have a home to sell, you now know

Late last year we published our predictions for the 2018 real estate market. So far 2018 is playing out largely as expected. Here's our quick overview of this year's predicted and actual trends.

Prediction: Madison condo prices will rise by at least 8 percent. 

Actual: The average Madison condo price is up by 9 percent through the first 7 months of the year; the price per square foot is up by 7 percent. 

Prediction: Madison home prices will rise by at least 5 percent. 

Actual: Both the average price and the price per square foot are up by 4 percent through the first 7 months of the year. 

Prediction: New home construction will remain low. 

Actual: Housing starts remain low by historical standards. Building permits are up by only

We've just completed our mid-year home and condo updates, and the latest numbers show the seller's market is alive and well in the city of Madison. Here's our quick overview of the latest trends in the Madison real estate market. 

The Madison condo market

Madison condo supply is historically low and driving prices higher. Take a look at the graph below, which shows how the number of available condo listings has changed from July, 2015 to July, 2018. Amazingly, active condo listings have decreased by 48% over the last 3 years. 

Over the same 3-year stretch condo supply has dipped to well below 2 months of inventory. This historically low number is indicative of a very strong seller's market. 

Condos are also selling much more quickly

We recently wrote how the city of Madison has become a perpetual seller's market. Our latest single family home and condo reports show the month of May was no exception. Here's a short summary of the latest market trends in Madison.

Home and condo inventory

The Madison single family home market has had less than 2 months of supply since December of 2015. Right now there are only 1.2 months of inventory in the city, which is down from 1.4 months from the same time last year.  

Supply is also very low in the local condo market. Right now there are only 1.3 months of inventory available for sale in the Madison condo market, which is down from 1.5 months in June of 2017. 

New MLS listings

New MLS listings are in short supply in 2018 -

As we approach the warmer summer months the Madison real estate market shifts from "over-heated" to "balanced". The graph below, which shows accepted offers by month, puts this shift into perspective. As the graph shows, buyer activity decreases in June, a typical pattern for our market.  

Opportunities for summertime buyers

Because the market shifts in June, the summertime is a good market for opportunistic buyers. A decent supply of new listings will hit the market in June, but competing offers and bidding wars will moderate. So right now is the time for buyers to stay engaged with their search and to act quickly when an appealing property is listed for sale. With a good supply of new listings, and fewer competing buyers, the summer market

We just put the finishing touches on our latest single family home and condo reports, and as expected, rising prices and low inventory continue to be the two major themes in this year's real estate market. But how long can this sellers market in Madison last? We expect the market to favor sellers for a long time, and we explain why below. 

Why Madison is a long-term sellers market

The short and simple answer is the Madison area has many more people wanting to buy than owners willing to sell. We know this from our day-to-day work in the field, and our review of local market data confirms this is much more than a hunch. Here are 3 reasons why we know the city of Madison has many more buyers than sellers.

#1: Competing offers are at an all-time